Best scenario is a possibility

What’s Putin up to?
That’s not an easy question — especially when considering the fast-moving events of this week.
Cease-fire? No cease-fire? Humanitarian mission or invading troops? Peace talks or no peace talks?
At the risk of looking foolish, we’ll offer a few thoughts.
First, there are serious indications of behind-the-scene talks, pressed by Germany, over the past few weeks.
Second, there are indications that Putin’s circle within the Kremlin is fractured on how to sort out the Ukrainian mess.
Hard-liners take a tough-guy approach; billionaires are being squeezed by sanctions by the West. They don’t see eye-to-eye, and Putin is in the middle. Kremlin watchers have detected significant vacillation on Putin’s part in recent weeks.
Third, the latest military moves by Russia have been intended to offset recent gains by Ukrainian forces and also to provide Russia with better leverage and control over the “separatists” Putin unleashed.
Think of it as a chess move. Putin knows that a negotiated settlement is coming; he’s trying to give himself a better position as he goes into bargaining.
Had Ukraine been even more successful militarily, Putin would have been at a serious disadvantage. The Russian “surge” stops the Ukrainians while giving Russia more authority over the separatists.
Fourth, there is no going back to the way Ukraine was before all this started.
Putin has succeeded in slicing off those portions of the Ukrainian salami that he wants — particularly Crimea — and it doesn’t really matter whether those regions are “autonomous” entities or actual parts of Russia. Whatever their designation, they will answer to Moscow.
Fifth, and finally, there’s a good chance that the “best case scenario” will actually happen.
What will it look like? Crimea and part of eastern Ukraine will break off as “autonomous” regions beholden to Russia. Ukraine will continue its move toward the West and the European Union.
Both sides will fashion language that allows them to save face. Russia will continue to bristle and act up for a period of a year or two, then it will quietly do what it can to have sanctions lifted and return to a measure of respectability in the world community.
That’s the best case scenario.
Will it come to pass? We’d like to think so, but there’s a good chance we’ll be looking foolish in the end. — J.R.