Civil war is a possibility

Think about the chaos in Syria.
A chaotic civil war with multiple factions of opposition battling against an entrenched and brutal regime has left tens of thousands dead and force tens of thousands more into exile.
Now imagine that same scenario on the edge of Europe.
Do that, and you’ll have some appreciation of the importance of quelling the unrest in Ukraine.
Already, those on the scene have said outright civil war is a real possibility.
Already, those in Ukraine are hinting the country could split in two, with one Ukraine looking west toward Europe and another looking east toward Russia.
Historically, Russia’s relationship with Ukraine has been ambivalent at best. The roots of the Russian nation were formed in Ukraine, but it has often been viewed as a second-rate, poor country cousin. In Soviet times, it was not uncommon for ethnic Ukrainians to be viewed as less-than-Russian.
That was a factor during the devastating Ukrainian famines in Stalin’s era, and vestiges of that attitude remain today.
Geographically and demographically, splitting the country in two at first glance appears to make sense.
Western Ukraine, the area near Kiev, is populated primarily by ethnic Ukrainians and dreams of a future as part of the European Union.
Eastern Ukraine, particularly the region of the Crimea, is populated primarily by ethnic Russians and has strong historic, emotional, cultural and economic ties with Moscow.
But the example of the Balkans reminds us that break-ups like that inevitably lead to ethnic cleansing. If a region is dominated by 75 percent of one group, it’s not long before the other 25 percent is targeted for attack or exile.
To further complicate matters, neighboring Moldova has ethnic problems of its own. While most of Moldova is ethnically Romanian and looks west, the breakaway region of Transnistria is dominated by ethnic Russians. And Transnistria lies directly between Moldova and western Ukraine.
In other words, the stakes are high.
It’s imperative the Obama administration and European Union work energetically and imaginatively with Russia to help calm the situation and work out a political solution before the region fractures into its own version of the Balkans.
So far, a truce has proved elusive. But it’s a vital first step.
As long as there are fires burning on the Maidan and shots being fired at demonstrators, as long as violent and irresponsible rhetoric dominate the conversation, Ukraine’s future looks grim.
And that could mean civil war on Europe’s doorstep. — J.R.

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