March 17, 2015 at 6:49 p.m.
Questions about Russia are real
Editorial
So, what happens to Russia after Vladimir Putin?
That’s the question that arises after his brief absence from the public eye this month.
The best answer available appears to be one from an analyst by the name of Robert Coalson.
He’s outlined three scenarios, and unfortunately the most likely one is the most dangerous.
Coalson, in an Internet posting Friday, sketched three ways things could play out if Putin falls from power, falls ill or dies.
The first he calls the constitutional scenario.
Under the Russian constitution, if Putin were suddenly incapacitated, authority would shift to the prime minister, Dmitry Medvedev, who would become acting president. The prime minister would then have three months to schedule a presidential election.
If you think that sounds too smooth to be real, join the club. Just because it’s written in the Russian constitution doesn’t mean the rules will be followed.
The second scenario is one that relies on consensus and is based upon what happened behind closed doors when Boris Yeltsin fell from power in 1999.
With the Russian economy in chaos, Kremlin power brokers gathered behind closed doors, put their heads together and came up with someone to run the show: Putin. Something similar could happen in a post-Putin Russia.
The third scenario is the most dangerous, a scenario of conflict.
“Under Putin,” writes Coalson, “the political system has become more personalized and centered around the president himself, who has balanced conflicting parties. And he has almost certainly stifled all discussion of what could or should happen in a post-Putin era.”
The result is a shifting batch of clans, striving for power, each representing different oligarchies and regions and special interests.
With the assassination of opposition leader Boris Nemstov, the situation has already become bloody.
There’s every reason to believe that someday it will become bloodier.
Even with Putin back in view, questions about succession and the eventual transfer of power are real. — J.R.
That’s the question that arises after his brief absence from the public eye this month.
The best answer available appears to be one from an analyst by the name of Robert Coalson.
He’s outlined three scenarios, and unfortunately the most likely one is the most dangerous.
Coalson, in an Internet posting Friday, sketched three ways things could play out if Putin falls from power, falls ill or dies.
The first he calls the constitutional scenario.
Under the Russian constitution, if Putin were suddenly incapacitated, authority would shift to the prime minister, Dmitry Medvedev, who would become acting president. The prime minister would then have three months to schedule a presidential election.
If you think that sounds too smooth to be real, join the club. Just because it’s written in the Russian constitution doesn’t mean the rules will be followed.
The second scenario is one that relies on consensus and is based upon what happened behind closed doors when Boris Yeltsin fell from power in 1999.
With the Russian economy in chaos, Kremlin power brokers gathered behind closed doors, put their heads together and came up with someone to run the show: Putin. Something similar could happen in a post-Putin Russia.
The third scenario is the most dangerous, a scenario of conflict.
“Under Putin,” writes Coalson, “the political system has become more personalized and centered around the president himself, who has balanced conflicting parties. And he has almost certainly stifled all discussion of what could or should happen in a post-Putin era.”
The result is a shifting batch of clans, striving for power, each representing different oligarchies and regions and special interests.
With the assassination of opposition leader Boris Nemstov, the situation has already become bloody.
There’s every reason to believe that someday it will become bloodier.
Even with Putin back in view, questions about succession and the eventual transfer of power are real. — J.R.
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