November 10, 2015 at 6:30 p.m.
Myanmar seems to be progressing
Editorial
So Myanmar has voted in its fairest, most important election in decades.
Now what?
For starters, it’s going to take several days to count the ballots.
Though the major cities — Yangon, Mandalay and Naypyidaw — gave a landslide victory to the National League for Democracy, the vote from rural areas will take some time to come in. And in a country of 30 million with something like 100 different ethnic groups and a dizzying degree of complexity, sorting out the results will take some time.
At the moment, there are still several different possible outcomes.
If that landslide victory by the NLD stands, then the party led by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi will have a strong position in parliament and a voice in the parliamentary election of a new president in February.
But under Myanmar’s current constitution, the military is guaranteed 25 percent of the seats in parliament and the military-backed Union of Solidarity and Development Party will still be a factor.
The military and the USDP have been in control since the 1980s, and while they have shown movement toward reform and opening up the country’s political process, it won’t be easy to get people to give up authority and privilege that they have enjoyed for so long.
There’s also a real danger of the NLD and Aung San Suu Kyi overplaying their hand, which could lead to a backlash from the military.
Barred by the constitution from becoming president because of her marriage to a foreigner, Aung San Suu Kyi has already raised eyebrows by saying she would be “above the president” and dismissing the constitution itself as just another piece of paper. Though she’s a hugely popular figure, she’ll need to show more tact and humility going forward.
And if the NLD’s margin of victory is less than a landslide, then some of the nearly 100 other parties — most of them based on ethnicity and local concerns — will have to become part of a coalition government.
It is, in other words, a tremendously complicated situation.
But there are reasons for optimism.
The ruling USDP made dramatic gestures toward political and economic openness in 2011 and 2012. Despite rampant discrimination against the ethnic Rohingya population, the election was the best the country has seen.
And, perhaps most tellingly, the commander in chief of the country’s military seems committed to abiding by the result of the vote.
“Just as the winner accepts the results, so should the loser,” Min Aung Hlaing told the independent news outlet Mizzima.
That, in itself, represents an enormous change. Back in 1990, when the military didn’t like the results, they simply ignored the vote and put Daw Aung San Suu Kyi under house arrest. — J.R.
Now what?
For starters, it’s going to take several days to count the ballots.
Though the major cities — Yangon, Mandalay and Naypyidaw — gave a landslide victory to the National League for Democracy, the vote from rural areas will take some time to come in. And in a country of 30 million with something like 100 different ethnic groups and a dizzying degree of complexity, sorting out the results will take some time.
At the moment, there are still several different possible outcomes.
If that landslide victory by the NLD stands, then the party led by Daw Aung San Suu Kyi will have a strong position in parliament and a voice in the parliamentary election of a new president in February.
But under Myanmar’s current constitution, the military is guaranteed 25 percent of the seats in parliament and the military-backed Union of Solidarity and Development Party will still be a factor.
The military and the USDP have been in control since the 1980s, and while they have shown movement toward reform and opening up the country’s political process, it won’t be easy to get people to give up authority and privilege that they have enjoyed for so long.
There’s also a real danger of the NLD and Aung San Suu Kyi overplaying their hand, which could lead to a backlash from the military.
Barred by the constitution from becoming president because of her marriage to a foreigner, Aung San Suu Kyi has already raised eyebrows by saying she would be “above the president” and dismissing the constitution itself as just another piece of paper. Though she’s a hugely popular figure, she’ll need to show more tact and humility going forward.
And if the NLD’s margin of victory is less than a landslide, then some of the nearly 100 other parties — most of them based on ethnicity and local concerns — will have to become part of a coalition government.
It is, in other words, a tremendously complicated situation.
But there are reasons for optimism.
The ruling USDP made dramatic gestures toward political and economic openness in 2011 and 2012. Despite rampant discrimination against the ethnic Rohingya population, the election was the best the country has seen.
And, perhaps most tellingly, the commander in chief of the country’s military seems committed to abiding by the result of the vote.
“Just as the winner accepts the results, so should the loser,” Min Aung Hlaing told the independent news outlet Mizzima.
That, in itself, represents an enormous change. Back in 1990, when the military didn’t like the results, they simply ignored the vote and put Daw Aung San Suu Kyi under house arrest. — J.R.
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