September 6, 2016 at 5:29 p.m.
Country’s future is unpredictable
Editorial
The king is dead. Long live the king.
But sometimes it takes a while to sort out who the next king is likely to be.
Uzbekistan’s President Islam Karimov died last week. Exactly when is a little fuzzy, since the opaque government there doesn’t really let folks know what’s happening on a timely basis.
Even fuzzier is the question of what happens next.
Karimov has ruled the former Soviet republic since before it became independent. With an average age of just a little over 27 years, a good chunk of the Uzbek population has known no other ruler than the iron-fisted dictator who just died.
Karimov’s rule has been marked by a distinct ruthlessness, even by Central Asian standards. There are police states, and then there are horrific police states.
Karimov’s Uzbekistan falls into the latter category.
How bad has it been? There have been credible reports that some of the people detained by the Karimov government were actually boiled alive as their interrogators attempted to gain confessions or information.
That’s hard to beat.
And then there is Andijon.
A couple of years ago, alarmed by the growing independence of a network of business people in that regional city, the Karimov government launched a massacre against the perceived threat.
It’s dreadful stuff, but the question now is, what happens next?
Optimists think the uncertainty might actually create an opportunity for democratic forces in Uzbek society. But it’s probably more likely that another strongman will move into Karimov’s chair.
Why does this matter to those of us thousands of miles away?
Because what’s happening in Uzbekistan right now will soon be happening in other fragments of the old Soviet Union. One by one, the old bosses will be dying off in places like Kazakhstan and Belarus and Tajikistan. And when that happens, the Kremlin will become increasingly nervous.
Putin and company have never really thought those former Soviet entities were truly independent. Events in Ukraine proved that.
They’re even less likely to let the farthest reaches of the old Russian empire slip from their grasp. And then things become unpredictable, which is never good. — J.R.
But sometimes it takes a while to sort out who the next king is likely to be.
Uzbekistan’s President Islam Karimov died last week. Exactly when is a little fuzzy, since the opaque government there doesn’t really let folks know what’s happening on a timely basis.
Even fuzzier is the question of what happens next.
Karimov has ruled the former Soviet republic since before it became independent. With an average age of just a little over 27 years, a good chunk of the Uzbek population has known no other ruler than the iron-fisted dictator who just died.
Karimov’s rule has been marked by a distinct ruthlessness, even by Central Asian standards. There are police states, and then there are horrific police states.
Karimov’s Uzbekistan falls into the latter category.
How bad has it been? There have been credible reports that some of the people detained by the Karimov government were actually boiled alive as their interrogators attempted to gain confessions or information.
That’s hard to beat.
And then there is Andijon.
A couple of years ago, alarmed by the growing independence of a network of business people in that regional city, the Karimov government launched a massacre against the perceived threat.
It’s dreadful stuff, but the question now is, what happens next?
Optimists think the uncertainty might actually create an opportunity for democratic forces in Uzbek society. But it’s probably more likely that another strongman will move into Karimov’s chair.
Why does this matter to those of us thousands of miles away?
Because what’s happening in Uzbekistan right now will soon be happening in other fragments of the old Soviet Union. One by one, the old bosses will be dying off in places like Kazakhstan and Belarus and Tajikistan. And when that happens, the Kremlin will become increasingly nervous.
Putin and company have never really thought those former Soviet entities were truly independent. Events in Ukraine proved that.
They’re even less likely to let the farthest reaches of the old Russian empire slip from their grasp. And then things become unpredictable, which is never good. — J.R.
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