November 21, 2017 at 4:27 a.m.
Declines will continue
Expert says rate may slow, but Jay Schools will continue to lose enrollment
Declines will continue
Copyright 2017, The Commercial Review
All Rights Reserved
Enrollment declines for Jay Schools are expected to slow a bit in the next few years, but the numbers won’t reverse themselves, and they won’t erase the fact that total enrollment has dropped 46 percent since 1974.
Jerry McKibben of McKibben Demographics told Jay School Board on Monday he is forecasting a drop of 90 students, or about 2.8 percent, between the 2017-18 school year and 2022-23. He’s forecasting another drop of about 2 percent between 2022-23 and 2027-28.
That’s a more moderate pace than the past.
“It’s a slight downward track but not near what you saw in the last decade,” he said.
The school corporation saw enrollment decline 11 percent between 2010 and 2017, 6 percent between 2000 and 2010, 12 percent between 1990 and 2000, 19 percent between 1980 and 1990 and 13 percent between 1970 and 1980.
The problem, said McKibben, is that the demographic makeup of the district has changed over time. The median age was 38.9 in 2010 and will be 42.8 by 2025.
“The primary factors causing the district’s enrollment to decrease over the next 10 years are the increase in empty-nest households and a low rate of in-migration of young families,” he said. Meanwhile, those in the 18 to 24 age range are moving out of the district, going to college or urban centers.
“There’s a relative dearth of people at child-bearing age,” he said. “They’re going to college and they’re not coming back.”
At some point in the future, McKibben said, Jay County could find itself with more deaths each year than births. Five counties in Indiana are already in that situation.
For school board members, the demographic study was the latest bit of information as the board inches toward a December decision on whether to close the Judge Haynes Elementary School building and move those students to East and General Shanks elementaries.
And superintendent Jeremy Gulley is urging the board to be prepared to make still more tough decisions on reconfiguring schools by December of next year.
“We’ve had a structure of schools that’s no longer sustainable,” Gulley said. “We’ve tried to fund that model as long as we could.”
Gulley presented a comparison of Jay Schools with eight other school systems of similar enrollment
“Districts most like us in enrollment have nearly half the number of schools we have,” he said. Those corporations are also carrying more than twice the annual year-end cash balance in the general fund. “Our elementary schools are 43 percent the size of the average elementary school in similar districts.”
Jay Schools has 18 percent more full-time equivalent employees than the average similar district and its teacher salaries are less than the average.
Because state funding is directly tied to the number of students, enrollment declines have a significant fiscal impact. That was a factor in last year’s decision to close the Pennville Elementary School building and move students elsewhere, and it’s a factor in the pending Judge Haynes decision, which is projected to result in an annual savings for the general fund of $380,972.
Gulley is recommending that with the closure of Judge Haynes, East Elementary School would be reconfigured as a kindergarten through grade two facility while General Shanks would be a grade three through five school.
McKibben’s enrollment forecasts, however, complicate that somewhat, with the projected numbers for General Shanks putting some pressure on the building’s capacity. But that would only be for one or two years.
“I conclude it’s feasible,” said Gulley.
By then, another reconfiguration of schools might be in the works.
Gulley is also asking the board to consider a plan that would consolidate both middle schools in the Jay County High School building, close the Shanks building and send those students to the current East Jay Middle School building, and close the Westlawn Elementary School building and send those students to the current West Jay Middle School building. That decision would likely come in December 2018 and take effect in the 2020-21 school year.
One option would be to defer on closing Judge Haynes and do the larger reconfiguration all at once in 2020-21. The third option would be to keep the Haynes building open.
“Option 3, I do not recommend,” said Gulley.
“My concern,” said board member Phil Ford, “is that he (McKibben) may be too conservative in projecting enrollment.” Warning against complacency, he added, “We are still on a track for bankruptcy if we don’t do anything.”
Looking at the earlier years of enrollment decline, board president Kristi Betts said, “We are already behind in making our decisions.”
In other business, board members Ron Laux, Mike Shannon, Beth Krieg, Cory Gundrum, Christa Muhlenkamp, Ford and Betz:
•Approved the school calendar for 2018-2019 which calls for a start date of Aug. 10 and a final date of May 22. The calendar is largely in line with the one that was presented to South Adams School Board to be voted on in December.
•Heard a financial report that projects the school corporation will end 2017 with a cash balance in the general fund of $1.469 million.
•Approved an emergency shelter agreement between Miller’s Merry Manor and Westlawn Elementary School.
•Hired Liana McLaughlin as an instructional assistant, Robert Kaufman as a part-time custodian, Ted Habegger as a drivers’ education instructor, Leslie Schubert as a special education teacher, Brandy Shannon as an instructional assistant and Rebecca Carr as a science and language arts teacher.
•Accepted donations of $1,250 for Redkey Elementary and $1,300 for Westlawn from Dunkirk Kiwanis and a donation of $500 from Patriot Fitness for Westlawn students to see a play at JCHS.
•Approved a lease agreement for 17 copiers with Office Concepts, Fort Wayne, at a cost of $3,390 per month, which was the low quote.
•Accepted the resignations of part-time custodian Ron Homan and nurse Jill Aker.
•Approved leaves of absence for pre-school teacher Sarah Davidson, bus driver and mechanic Perry Harris and science teacher Jeff Hess.
•Authorized an Indiana Bond Bank cash flow loan up to $1.3 million until funds are available from the property tax draw.
•Learned that all Jay Schools elementaries had outperformed the state average on the summer re-testing of the IREAD 3 program. Two schools, Haynes and Redkey, had 100 percent of students passing on the re-testing. Overall, Jay Schools saw 93.2 percent passing, while the state average was 89.7 percent.
•Accepted a $4,512 grant from Reading Is Fundamental, which is being matched by the same amount of local donations to provide books to elementary students.
•Approved extracurricular assignments for James Myers as wrestling coach at East Jay, Renae Laux as seventh grade girls’ basketball coach at East Jay, Curtis Little as team leader at West Jay and Bethany Johnson as team leader at West Jay.
•Approved a field trip by JCHS students to the state thespian competition.
•Accepted an Indiana Department of Education grant of $63,789 to fund summer school activities earlier this year.
All Rights Reserved
Enrollment declines for Jay Schools are expected to slow a bit in the next few years, but the numbers won’t reverse themselves, and they won’t erase the fact that total enrollment has dropped 46 percent since 1974.
Jerry McKibben of McKibben Demographics told Jay School Board on Monday he is forecasting a drop of 90 students, or about 2.8 percent, between the 2017-18 school year and 2022-23. He’s forecasting another drop of about 2 percent between 2022-23 and 2027-28.
That’s a more moderate pace than the past.
“It’s a slight downward track but not near what you saw in the last decade,” he said.
The school corporation saw enrollment decline 11 percent between 2010 and 2017, 6 percent between 2000 and 2010, 12 percent between 1990 and 2000, 19 percent between 1980 and 1990 and 13 percent between 1970 and 1980.
The problem, said McKibben, is that the demographic makeup of the district has changed over time. The median age was 38.9 in 2010 and will be 42.8 by 2025.
“The primary factors causing the district’s enrollment to decrease over the next 10 years are the increase in empty-nest households and a low rate of in-migration of young families,” he said. Meanwhile, those in the 18 to 24 age range are moving out of the district, going to college or urban centers.
“There’s a relative dearth of people at child-bearing age,” he said. “They’re going to college and they’re not coming back.”
At some point in the future, McKibben said, Jay County could find itself with more deaths each year than births. Five counties in Indiana are already in that situation.
For school board members, the demographic study was the latest bit of information as the board inches toward a December decision on whether to close the Judge Haynes Elementary School building and move those students to East and General Shanks elementaries.
And superintendent Jeremy Gulley is urging the board to be prepared to make still more tough decisions on reconfiguring schools by December of next year.
“We’ve had a structure of schools that’s no longer sustainable,” Gulley said. “We’ve tried to fund that model as long as we could.”
Gulley presented a comparison of Jay Schools with eight other school systems of similar enrollment
“Districts most like us in enrollment have nearly half the number of schools we have,” he said. Those corporations are also carrying more than twice the annual year-end cash balance in the general fund. “Our elementary schools are 43 percent the size of the average elementary school in similar districts.”
Jay Schools has 18 percent more full-time equivalent employees than the average similar district and its teacher salaries are less than the average.
Because state funding is directly tied to the number of students, enrollment declines have a significant fiscal impact. That was a factor in last year’s decision to close the Pennville Elementary School building and move students elsewhere, and it’s a factor in the pending Judge Haynes decision, which is projected to result in an annual savings for the general fund of $380,972.
Gulley is recommending that with the closure of Judge Haynes, East Elementary School would be reconfigured as a kindergarten through grade two facility while General Shanks would be a grade three through five school.
McKibben’s enrollment forecasts, however, complicate that somewhat, with the projected numbers for General Shanks putting some pressure on the building’s capacity. But that would only be for one or two years.
“I conclude it’s feasible,” said Gulley.
By then, another reconfiguration of schools might be in the works.
Gulley is also asking the board to consider a plan that would consolidate both middle schools in the Jay County High School building, close the Shanks building and send those students to the current East Jay Middle School building, and close the Westlawn Elementary School building and send those students to the current West Jay Middle School building. That decision would likely come in December 2018 and take effect in the 2020-21 school year.
One option would be to defer on closing Judge Haynes and do the larger reconfiguration all at once in 2020-21. The third option would be to keep the Haynes building open.
“Option 3, I do not recommend,” said Gulley.
“My concern,” said board member Phil Ford, “is that he (McKibben) may be too conservative in projecting enrollment.” Warning against complacency, he added, “We are still on a track for bankruptcy if we don’t do anything.”
Looking at the earlier years of enrollment decline, board president Kristi Betts said, “We are already behind in making our decisions.”
In other business, board members Ron Laux, Mike Shannon, Beth Krieg, Cory Gundrum, Christa Muhlenkamp, Ford and Betz:
•Approved the school calendar for 2018-2019 which calls for a start date of Aug. 10 and a final date of May 22. The calendar is largely in line with the one that was presented to South Adams School Board to be voted on in December.
•Heard a financial report that projects the school corporation will end 2017 with a cash balance in the general fund of $1.469 million.
•Approved an emergency shelter agreement between Miller’s Merry Manor and Westlawn Elementary School.
•Hired Liana McLaughlin as an instructional assistant, Robert Kaufman as a part-time custodian, Ted Habegger as a drivers’ education instructor, Leslie Schubert as a special education teacher, Brandy Shannon as an instructional assistant and Rebecca Carr as a science and language arts teacher.
•Accepted donations of $1,250 for Redkey Elementary and $1,300 for Westlawn from Dunkirk Kiwanis and a donation of $500 from Patriot Fitness for Westlawn students to see a play at JCHS.
•Approved a lease agreement for 17 copiers with Office Concepts, Fort Wayne, at a cost of $3,390 per month, which was the low quote.
•Accepted the resignations of part-time custodian Ron Homan and nurse Jill Aker.
•Approved leaves of absence for pre-school teacher Sarah Davidson, bus driver and mechanic Perry Harris and science teacher Jeff Hess.
•Authorized an Indiana Bond Bank cash flow loan up to $1.3 million until funds are available from the property tax draw.
•Learned that all Jay Schools elementaries had outperformed the state average on the summer re-testing of the IREAD 3 program. Two schools, Haynes and Redkey, had 100 percent of students passing on the re-testing. Overall, Jay Schools saw 93.2 percent passing, while the state average was 89.7 percent.
•Accepted a $4,512 grant from Reading Is Fundamental, which is being matched by the same amount of local donations to provide books to elementary students.
•Approved extracurricular assignments for James Myers as wrestling coach at East Jay, Renae Laux as seventh grade girls’ basketball coach at East Jay, Curtis Little as team leader at West Jay and Bethany Johnson as team leader at West Jay.
•Approved a field trip by JCHS students to the state thespian competition.
•Accepted an Indiana Department of Education grant of $63,789 to fund summer school activities earlier this year.
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