Solution isn’t simple in Myanmar

Ethnic conflicts are tough enough to unravel when they’re happening in our neighborhood, internationally speaking.

And when they’re happening on the other side of the world, it’s better to keep one’s mouth shut rather than confirm one’s ignorance.

That’s a lesson pundits and editorial writers would be wise to remember as they weigh in on the dreadful, heart-wrenching events in Myanmar’s Rakhine state, where thousands of Muslim Rohingya have been forced to flee the country.

Armchair experts have been quick to portray the situation as a good guy vs. bad guy conflict and they’ve been quick to flail Daw Aung San Su Kyi for not bringing an end to the strife.

But events in Myanmar, formerly known as Burma, are never as simple as black and white. In this case, there are plenty of bad guys to go around and good guys find themselves with very little in the way of clout.

Ethnic and religious tensions in the country have been festering for decades, and a Buddhist nationalist movement known has Ma Ba Tha has only made things worse in the past few years. Like its counterpart Hindu nationalist movement in India, Ma Ba Tha would use the power of a religious majority to silence and subjugate those in religious minorities.

Some of that sentiment has been around for generations. The Rohingya, for example, aren’t considered Myanmar citizens; instead, they’re treated as outsiders in their own country because they are Muslim. But the latest surge in Buddhist nationalism has made matters worse.

Add to that tension the type of Islamic radicalism that has sprung up across the globe, from Syria to Pakistan and beyond. Some marginalized Rohingya have adopted radical Islam, and there are reports of militant jihadists from Pakistan playing a role.

Insurgents operating with the unlikely name of the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army attacked something like 30 police outposts this summer, sparking a brutal crackdown by the Myanmar military. That has led, in turn, to a massive wave of refugees trying to get away from the fighting.

So where has Aung San Su Kyi been in all this? The Nobel Peace Prize winner, known to her countryman simply as “The Lady,” has been remarkably silent on the situation.

And for that she’s taken some harsh criticism internationally.

But it’s worth remembering that she’s at a serious disadvantage.

As a recent article in The Irrawaddy, one of the most dependable news websites on Myanmar, points out, The Lady and her government are essentially “sandwiched” politically between the military and nationalist parties.

She also has to contend with an undemocratic constitution which grants 25 percent of all power automatically to the military and prohibits having a civilian as commander in chief.

Taking a bold stand on the Rohingya might boost The Lady’s popularity on Western editorial pages, but it would have absolutely no impact on the military and would further complicate efforts to reform the constitution.

Right now, the conflict plays into the military’s hands, giving the generals and their followers justification for continued repression.

Undeniably, the situation is a disaster from a humanitarian standpoint. But to suggest there’s a simple solution is both glib and ill-informed. — J.R.