A race to remember (10/06/2008)

The question was shouted a few months ago above the noise of the Jay County Fair: "Can Obama win Jay County?"

The short answer was: Probably not.

As far as presidential politics go, this tends to be a Republican county in a Republican state. Hoosiers are used to seeing their state among the first to be forecast for any GOP presidential candidate.

Jay County voters haven't favored a Democrat for a long, long time.

Let's go back nearly 50 years.

In 1960, Jay County voters favored Richard Nixon over John F. Kennedy 6,519-4,899.

In 1968, Jay went for Nixon over Hubert Humphrey 5,460-4,290.

In 1972, the Jay County vote went overwhelmingly for Nixon over George McGovern 6,090-3,349.

In 1976, in the midst of a bad economy, it was closer, with Gerald Ford beating Jimmy Carter in Jay County 4,606-4,124.

Ronald Reagan ran all over Jimmy Carter in 1980 locally, defeating the incumbent president 5,351-3,256.

Reagan ran just as strong for re-election, defeating Walter Mondale 5,975-3,174 in 1994 in the Jay County vote.

In 1988, George W. Bush defeated Michael Dukakis by a similar margin, 5,363-3,212.

But in 1992, Democrat Bill Clinton tapped a Jay County nerve. He still lost the county to Bush, but the margin was a slim 3,609-3,208.

The margin stayed tight in 1996, when Clinton lost to Bob Dole locally by a vote of 3,584-3,356.

In 2000, things reverted to their usual Republican pattern, with George W. Bush defeating Al Gore in the county 4,687-3,167.

An even larger margin could be found in 2004, when Bush knocked off Democratic challenger John Kerry 5,425-2,740.

The only year left out of this litany of GOP success is the election that proved to be the exception: 1964. That year, despite Jay County's Republican leanings, the local vote went 6,781-4,439 for Lyndon Johnson over Barry Goldwater.

So, again, the short answer is still that Jay County is solidly Republican enough that John McCain should be sleeping easily.

But take another look.

In 1964, the last year the Democrats won the presidential race in Jay County and in Indiana, voter turnout numbers were exceptionally high. More than 11,000 Jay votes were recorded that year, compared to about 8,000 for Gore vs. Bush.

So, the potential votes may be there.

The question then is, will they turn out for Barack Obama?

And that was the question being driven at when it was shouted a few months back at the Jay County Fair.

Will Jay County's Democratic base show up in large numbers for Barack Obama? And to what extent will Obama's race play a role in their decision?

As one longtime Democrat put it, the most loyal Democratic voters in Jay County are those with the bluest collars and the reddest necks.

That's an unfair over-simplification, but it's true just the same that race - for some voters who might otherwise be inclined to cast a Democratic ballot - is, unfortunately, a factor.

Some of that is cultural. Some of it is generational. Some of it is habit. Some of it is bigotry.

Interestingly enough, during the May primary, there were indications that centrist Republican voters were prepared to crossover for Obama in traditionally GOP precincts, while Hillary Clinton was hammering Obama by large margins in Democratic strongholds.

Then again, that was May and the American economy looks a lot less secure today than it did a few months ago.

As Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell said over the weekend, if you're in danger and think you might drown, does the color of the skin of the guy you think is holding the best rope matter?

Will Obama win Jay County or even be competitive? History says no.

But sometimes circumstances trump history. It's going to be an interesting election. - J.R.[[In-content Ad]]