AFC, Luck key to playoff chances

In our preseason NFL preview podcast, Steve Garbacz and I answered a co-worker’s question: “Will the Colts at least make the playoffs this year?”
Our response was a resounding “no”.
We may have to eat that word.
Steve and I still could very well end up being right. The race for the wild card spots in the AFC is wide open, and the Colts are just as likely to end up sitting on the couch in January as they are to be playing postseason football.
But Indianapolis has a chance, and that is far more than I expected of the team this year.
What’s funny is, the Colts still have the problems that plagued them last year.
They have lived up to their reputation of having a complete inability to stop the run. They ranked 29th out of 32 teams in rushing yards allowed per game (137.4).
They’re not particularly good at running the ball themselves, although they are better than expected. They ranked 17th in yards per game (107.1) and 19th in yards per attempt (3.9).
And the offensive line ranks 24th in the league in terms of sacks allowed per game.
Really, the only significant difference between the 2012 Colts and the 2011 team that was flirting with a winless season before finishing 2-12 is that it is getting competent play at the quarterback position.
Andrew Luck’s traditional quarterback rating is 72.8, only slightly better than what Curtis Painter did last season (66.6) and worse than Dan Orlovsky (82.4). But the QBR, a system developed by ESPN’s Trent Dilfer that incorporates strength of defense, performance in “clutch” situations and a variety of other factors, tells the story better.
In that system, which is on a scale of one to 100, Luck ranks seventh in the league this season at 72.2, which is far better than his 2011 counterparts (22.5 for Painter and 49.9 for Orlovsky). He stands behind his predecessor Peyton Manning (82.5), as well as Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning and Aaron Rodgers.
Five of those men have won a Super Bowl — they’ve won nine total — and the other (Ryan) is piloting the only team that remains undefeated this year.
The conclusion: Luck is giving the Colts a chance to win.
The other reason Indianapolis has a real chance to make the playoffs this year is the continuing trend of the AFC being the weaker conference.
For years, the AFC was stronger than the NFC, with Brady’s Patriots and Manning’s Colts leading the charge. But in the last two seasons the power has shifted.
Let me take a moment to name the AFC teams I know, for sure, are good.
Houston (6-1) and New England (5-3). That’s it. That’s the list.
Baltimore (5-2) would have made it, but injuries have ravaged the Ravens. Denver (4-3) just climbed above .500 for the first time since the opening week of the season. Pittsburgh (4-3) has played just one team that has a winning record.
Meanwhile, the NFC has six teams with at least five wins, and all four division leaders are 6-2 or better.
If the playoffs started today, the Colts would be in. And they have a real opportunity to be in when it counts as well.
Six of their final nine games come against teams with losing records. The exceptions are a trip to New England on Nov. 18 and two games against the Texans in the final three weeks of the season.
Indianapolis is still a long way from being the Super Bowl contender it was for nearly a decade with Manning at the helm. But the fact that Colts fans are able to talk about playoff hopes this season without using the Jim Mora voice is a big step in the right direction.[[In-content Ad]]