Looking at new numbers

I like numbers.
For some writers, that’s a strange concept. They write because they’re word people.
But I’ve always liked numbers. I like being able to work on a problem that has one definitive solution.
So I’ve been interested in what some people in sports have called the “statistical revolution” we’re going through. (It’s most famous incarnation is the Oakland Athletics strategy that led to the book “Moneyball”, and a movie with the same name.)
I though I’d take the time this week to talk about some newer statistics and the how they can help us understand our favorite games better.

Baseball’s stats ...
... used to be broken down by a series of simple numbers — runs, RBIs, home runs, batting average, wins, ERA and strikeouts.
But some of those numbers can be deceiving because they are dependent on more than one player. A pitcher’s ERA, for example, is effected by the quality of his defense and by the relief pitchers who follow him.
So one of the statistics that can be interesting to check is called BABIP, or batting average on balls in play. To simplify, it takes strikeouts and home runs out of the equation to measure how many balls hit into the field of play result in hits rather than outs.
A pitcher with an exceptionally high or low BABIP may be having his ERA and other stats skewed by exceptionally good or bad luck/defense.
Taking a look at BABIP numbers from 2011, I might expect Cleveland Indians pitcher Josh Tomlin (12-7) to regress next season because his extremely low BABIP seems to indicate he enjoyed a significant amount of luck. On the other hand, I would expect Ryan Dempster (10-14) of the Chicago Cubs to have a bounce-back year in 2012 after posting an extremely high (unlucky) BABIP this season.

My favorite ...
... sport, football, is far less stat-obsessed than baseball, but that hasn’t stopped the wave of new statistics from making an impact on how we look at the NFL.
As a big fantasy football player, I’m interested not only in who the best players in the league are but also who may become the best players in the league. That can be difficult to do, and there is no foolproof method, but when it comes to receivers I’ve become a fan of tracking yards per target.
To me, it is perhaps the best measure of how much a receiver is producing each time he has an opportunity to catch the ball.
It probably wouldn’t surprise NFL fans that Pittsbrughs Mike Wallace, Green Bay’s Greg Jennings and Detroit’s Calvin Johnson all rank among the top 10 in the league. They are all recognized as being among the best at their positions.
On the other hand, less touted players like Laurent Robinson of Dallas, Victor Cruz of the New York Giants and Doug Baldwin of Seattle might be worth watching as up-and-comers who could have sustaned success because they seem to be making the most of the opportunities. All of them rank among the top 16 in yards per target.

One basketball stat ...
... I’ve been thinking about is rebounds.
In game stories I often reference one team out-rebounding the other, but the more I look at the numbers the more I realize simple rebounding totals do not tell the whole story.
Take the following hypothetical example using the Poling Yellowjackets and the Madison Tomcats.
Poling finishes the game with 50 rebounds compared to 25 for Madison. On their face, those numbers seem to indicate that Poling was twice as effective on the boards as Madison.
But the rebound totals don’t take into account how many defensive-rebounding opportunities each team had. It’s possible that Madison attempted and/or missed far more shots than Poling, thus creating more defensive rebound chances for the Yellowjackets.
Such factors lead me to believe defensive rebound percentage, rather than total rebounds, is a far better indicator of how well a team is performing on the glass.
So this season I’m going to start including defensive rebound percentage in the box score, and you may see me mention it in stories.
Hopefully it’ll serve to give you a more complete view of how each game played out.
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If you’re interested in in learning more about some of the newer statistics being used in sports, check out www.fangraphs.com, www.advancednflstats.com and 82games.com.[[In-content Ad]]