Opinions just don't add up (08/25/2008)

To the editor:

I'd like to comment on a couple of recent columns from the CR opinion page. The first appeared in the paper Thursday, Aug. 14, and was authored by Indur M. Goklanty, who has written on the improving state of the world, and by Jerry Taylor of the Cato Institute.

While I have not read Mr. Goklanty's book, his premise that we are living better and more comfortably in an ever cleaner world seems out of touch with the harsh realities facing millions of world citizens. Further, though I have not read other pieces by Mr. Taylor, I must admit to considerable skepticism regarding the conservative think-tank the Cato Institute.

At the very least, it seems to me highly unlikely that the authors are correct when they assert that gasoline was more expensive at 30 cents per gallon during the Kennedy administration in the 1960s than it is now today at $3.85.

Wouldn't it make you wonder why Americans weren't screaming from the rooftops in 1960 about how high the price of gasoline was at 30 or 31 cents per gallon? Were we cutting back on trips short and long, and were we seeing our airline tickets getting whacked with an expensive fuel surcharge per fare? Was there talk of absolutely unprecedented profits in the oil industry with daily media coverage of the issue, and threats of congressional hearings and/or windfall profit taxes?

Could be, I guess, but I don't remember any of that.

What I do know is you could buy a brand-new Ford Fairlane six-passenger sedan with Ford's new V-8 and automatic transmission for $2,195, and that 30-cent gallon of gas would get you 19.7 miles per gallon at 60 mph (November 1961 Popular Mechanics corrected figures). And we're to believe that gas is cheaper today at $3.85 peer gallon than the 30 or 31-cent figure of the 1960s? Really?

The authors write that "although it's true that the real (inflation adjusted) prices of gas are higher than at any time since World War II, even at the recent peak national average of $4.11 a gallon, gasoline is still more affordable today than it was during the Kennedy administration. Can both these allegations be true in the real world?

I suppose both could be more or less true if you accepted the Goklanty/Taylor assertion that we're all making so much more money now than we did in the year 2000, or, for example, that our increasing riches would more than offset a few cents or even a few dollars in the price of a gallon of gasoline.

They tell us, for instance, that our personal disposable incomes have grown since 2000 by an average of $4,800 per person, and now have risen by $1,627 in just the last year. Really?

For a working husband and wife, that would be a total increase of $9,600 since 2000. I'm certain they are not counting at-home kids in that "per person" count. I wonder how many families with two wage earners realize they have gotten wealthier by nearly $10,000 since 2000, and by even $3,200-plus in the last year alone?

We know that the very wealthiest of Americans have generally done quite well in the last eight years, far surpassing that average of $4,800 per person. For the great majority of us, however, that growth in "wealth" is demonstrably not true, and it most definitely is not true for two aged teachers retired on Social Security and teacher's pensions. And we are surely having an easier time making ends meet than many.

Monday's (Aug. 18) CR included a piece by economist Morton Marcus entitled "Coming clean about Indiana's problems." Marcus writes that "the number of jobs in Indiana fell by 1 percent from 2000 to 2007, while the population gained by 4.4 percent ... losing jobs but gaining people?" Presumably not a healthy scenario for our state. He further says through his alter-ego "Ed," that "the average pay per job in Indiana (after you adjust for rising prices) went up only $186 per job over those seven years."

Hmmm ... Goklanty and Taylor tell us our average disposable income grew $4,800 per person in seven years and $1,600 in the last year alone, and Marcus says we were lucky to see a real-world increase of just $186 in total over those seven years.

I'm of the opinion that it would take a very sharp pencil to make both these points of view equally tell the real world truth. I'm also sure there are number-crunching wizards who would try to convince us there is no need for worry, but such assertions ring hollow when you watch the register at Marsh or Wal-Mart, or when you pay for your heating oil or propane this fall, or when you can't delay filling the car or truck any longer. Joe and Leo's Gulfpride, where are you now?

Sincerely,

Glen Priest

Portland

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