July 23, 2014 at 2:10 p.m.
Picking rematch for Indy
Rays of Insight
Philadelphia Eagles over Pittsburgh Steelers.
That was my preseason Super Bowl prediction.
Sadly, it’s off the table even before the playoffs have started.
The Philadelphia “Dream Team” was a mess for the first half of the season, consistently shooting itself in the foot. And while I would argue the Eagles have played as well as anyone over the last few weeks, it’s a moot point since they didn’t even do enough to win a mediocre NFC East.
So since my preseason champ is gone, I’m starting over with new picks for the playoffs. But before I get to those, let’s take a look at my best and worst preseason predictions.
The best
San Francisco to win the NFC West.
St. Louis was the preseason darling after winning seven games in Sam Bradford’s first season a year ago. But I thought they’d have trouble winning more than a game in the first two months of the season.
I turned out to be right, as they finished just 2-14 and lost a tiebreaker with Indianapolis for the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft.
Backing the 49ers and new coach Jim Harbaugh paid off in a big way. San Francisco had the division all-but locked up at midseason and rolled all the way to the No. 2 seed.
The worst
Tampa Bay to make the playoffs as a wild card.
I was a big believer in third-year quarterback Josh Freeman, second-year running back LeGarrette Blount and coach Raheem Morris. That belief was clearly misplaced.
The Buccaneers never looked right, got worse when they lost defensive tackle Gerald McCoy to injury and dropped their final 10 games. The effort cost Morris his job.
I had even talked about picking Tampa Bay to go to the Super Bowl. Thankfully, I did not.
Philadelphia is bad enough. The Buccaneers would have been downright embarrassing.
Wild card round
Starting with the AFC, I am, without any doubt, taking the Pittsburgh Steelers over the Denver Broncos.
In case you haven’t noticed, the Tim Tebow-induced magic hasn’t been around for nearly a month. Denver just is not good enough to hang with the Steelers, even with Rashard Mendenhall out, Ryan Clark sitting and Ben Roethlisberger hobbled.
The other AFC game doesn’t matter as much because either team will lose in the divisional round, but I’m taking Houston. The Bengals have beaten just one team with a winning record (Tennessee) all season.
In the NFC, I’m looking forward to the Saturday-night shootout between the Saints and Lions in New Orleans. But as potent as the Detroit offense is, I’m picking the Saints with record-breaking Drew Brees and their 8-0 home mark.
The most difficult game to figure is Atlanta at New York, given that the Falcons have looked good, not great, all season while the Giants got hot late as they won four of their last five. I’m taking New York because in Matt Ryan’s career he’s 31-8 in domes and just 12-13 outdoors.
Divisional playoffs
In the bracket I’ve laid out, the second-round games would be as follows: Pittsburgh at New England, Houston at Baltimore, New York at Green Bay and New Orleans at San Francisco.
It’s supposedly difficult to beat the same team twice in a season. It’s definitely a challenge to beat a Bill Belichick-coached team twice. But I have no confidence in the New England defense and I think the Steelers will do the job.
Baltimore wins the other game going away. The Ravens are perfect at home and will be playing a third-string, rookie quarterback.
I love what Harbaugh has done with the 49ers, but that doesn’t make Alex Smith a championship-level quarterback. Drew Brees has already proven he is, and will lead the Saints to the NFC championship game.
The Giants played well in a three-point loss to the Packers on Dec. 4, but I’m just not betting against the defending champs. New York’s 2008 dream run will not be repeated.
Conference finals
The AFC comes down to a battle between divisional rivals. Baltimore has beaten Pittsburgh twice this year.
It’s not going to happen again.
When it comes down to a game with the Super Bowl on the line, I just believe in Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers. They will be on their way to Indianapolis.
The NFC title game will be a rematch of the season opener, pitting the two most recent Super Bowl champions. New Orleans nearly rallied to force overtime in September, but fell short.
Green Bay will win again in Lambeau, setting up a Super Bowl rematch.
Super Bowl
Pittsburgh was my preseason choice to lose the Super Bowl. I still think they’re going to fall, just to a different opponent than I predicted.
Green Bay will win the first Super Bowl rematch since Dallas defeated Buffalo in 1994, and become the first repeat champion in eight years.[[In-content Ad]]
That was my preseason Super Bowl prediction.
Sadly, it’s off the table even before the playoffs have started.
The Philadelphia “Dream Team” was a mess for the first half of the season, consistently shooting itself in the foot. And while I would argue the Eagles have played as well as anyone over the last few weeks, it’s a moot point since they didn’t even do enough to win a mediocre NFC East.
So since my preseason champ is gone, I’m starting over with new picks for the playoffs. But before I get to those, let’s take a look at my best and worst preseason predictions.
The best
San Francisco to win the NFC West.
St. Louis was the preseason darling after winning seven games in Sam Bradford’s first season a year ago. But I thought they’d have trouble winning more than a game in the first two months of the season.
I turned out to be right, as they finished just 2-14 and lost a tiebreaker with Indianapolis for the No. 1 pick in the NFL draft.
Backing the 49ers and new coach Jim Harbaugh paid off in a big way. San Francisco had the division all-but locked up at midseason and rolled all the way to the No. 2 seed.
The worst
Tampa Bay to make the playoffs as a wild card.
I was a big believer in third-year quarterback Josh Freeman, second-year running back LeGarrette Blount and coach Raheem Morris. That belief was clearly misplaced.
The Buccaneers never looked right, got worse when they lost defensive tackle Gerald McCoy to injury and dropped their final 10 games. The effort cost Morris his job.
I had even talked about picking Tampa Bay to go to the Super Bowl. Thankfully, I did not.
Philadelphia is bad enough. The Buccaneers would have been downright embarrassing.
Wild card round
Starting with the AFC, I am, without any doubt, taking the Pittsburgh Steelers over the Denver Broncos.
In case you haven’t noticed, the Tim Tebow-induced magic hasn’t been around for nearly a month. Denver just is not good enough to hang with the Steelers, even with Rashard Mendenhall out, Ryan Clark sitting and Ben Roethlisberger hobbled.
The other AFC game doesn’t matter as much because either team will lose in the divisional round, but I’m taking Houston. The Bengals have beaten just one team with a winning record (Tennessee) all season.
In the NFC, I’m looking forward to the Saturday-night shootout between the Saints and Lions in New Orleans. But as potent as the Detroit offense is, I’m picking the Saints with record-breaking Drew Brees and their 8-0 home mark.
The most difficult game to figure is Atlanta at New York, given that the Falcons have looked good, not great, all season while the Giants got hot late as they won four of their last five. I’m taking New York because in Matt Ryan’s career he’s 31-8 in domes and just 12-13 outdoors.
Divisional playoffs
In the bracket I’ve laid out, the second-round games would be as follows: Pittsburgh at New England, Houston at Baltimore, New York at Green Bay and New Orleans at San Francisco.
It’s supposedly difficult to beat the same team twice in a season. It’s definitely a challenge to beat a Bill Belichick-coached team twice. But I have no confidence in the New England defense and I think the Steelers will do the job.
Baltimore wins the other game going away. The Ravens are perfect at home and will be playing a third-string, rookie quarterback.
I love what Harbaugh has done with the 49ers, but that doesn’t make Alex Smith a championship-level quarterback. Drew Brees has already proven he is, and will lead the Saints to the NFC championship game.
The Giants played well in a three-point loss to the Packers on Dec. 4, but I’m just not betting against the defending champs. New York’s 2008 dream run will not be repeated.
Conference finals
The AFC comes down to a battle between divisional rivals. Baltimore has beaten Pittsburgh twice this year.
It’s not going to happen again.
When it comes down to a game with the Super Bowl on the line, I just believe in Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers. They will be on their way to Indianapolis.
The NFC title game will be a rematch of the season opener, pitting the two most recent Super Bowl champions. New Orleans nearly rallied to force overtime in September, but fell short.
Green Bay will win again in Lambeau, setting up a Super Bowl rematch.
Super Bowl
Pittsburgh was my preseason choice to lose the Super Bowl. I still think they’re going to fall, just to a different opponent than I predicted.
Green Bay will win the first Super Bowl rematch since Dallas defeated Buffalo in 1994, and become the first repeat champion in eight years.[[In-content Ad]]
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