Wagon nearly added a member

I was just about to jump.
In the preseason, I was not an Indianapolis Colts believer. Yes, they made it to the playoffs last year. But they did so mostly with smoke and mirrors, winning a lot of close games and coming up with big plays at key moments while riding the emotion of playing for coach Chuck Pagano as he battled leukemia.
The Indianapolis defense was horrendous in 2012, and the team looked to me like one primed to slide backward. I even thought the Colts might be better on the field, but worse in record.
And then Indianapolis shocked me. After a loss to an average-at-best Miami team, it came back to beat my two NFC favorites — the San Francisco 49ers on the road and the Seattle Seahawks at home — with a destruction of hapless Jacksonville in between. That was impressive.
The Colts just about had me convinced to take the flying leap onto their bandwagon.
And then, Monday night happened.
Granted, Indianapolis was on the road on the West Coast. But playing a team that had a losing record a year ago and was coming off of an ugly loss to the Oakland Raiders, this game was primed for the Colts to keep the momentum rolling and establish themselves as one of the clear-cut favorites in the AFC.
Instead, the defense that had shown such improvement so far this season couldn’t keep the Chargers off the field. Phillip Rivers and his San Diego pals controlled the ball for nearly 40 minutes.
When Andrew Luck did get the ball, he was unable to guide his team to the end zone. And this game wasn’t one that turned on fluky turnovers, special teams touchdowns or oddball penalties. Instead, the Colts simply couldn’t get first downs.
Indianapolis finished a paltry 2-for-10 on the game on third-down. For the season, the Colts ranked fifth in the NFL in third down percentage (45.8 percent), but it surely didn’t show in San Diego.
Yes, the team has done some things better this season.
Andrew Luck is clearly a better quarterback in his second year. He’s completing a much higher percentage of his passes for more yards per attempt and is on pace to cut his interceptions in half.
The overall defense is improved. After finishing as one of the worst units in the league last season, the Colts rank 11th in yards per game allowed and are fifth in points per game allowed (16.3). Those numbers will win any team a lot of games.
But there are still holes.
Although the Colts running game shows improvement in the overall totals, fans might be surprised that the now-injured Ahmad Bradshaw (4.5 yards per carry) had a far better rushing average than Trent Richardson (3.1 yards per carry since joining the team). Given those numbers, the ground game remains a problem.
But the real downside for Indianapolis is that it still can’t stop the run.
The Colts give up 132 yards per game on the ground, second-worst ahead of only Jacksonville. Ryan Mathews of the Chargers, who had not ran for more than 73 yards in a game this season and had not reached the 100-yard mark since December of 2011, pounded them for 102 yards on 22 carries.
We’ll learn a lot about just how good Indianapolis is in the next three weeks.
On Sunday, the Colts host Denver for the return of Peyton Manning. And then, after a bye week, they visit Houston to play a Texans squad that will need a victory to even have a chance to stay in the division race.
Indianapolis could easily lose both of those games, have a 4-4 record and be in for a fight in the second half of the season.
Are the Colts a playoff team?
Probably. Because the AFC remains relatively mediocre and the second half of their schedule isn’t nearly as tough as the first. (Getting to close the season against Jacksonville is an added bonus.) The team looks like it should win nine games, if not more.
But I’m holding off on calling the Colts a real Super Bowl contender. The bandwagon isn’t ready to make a trip that deep into the playoffs just yet.[[In-content Ad]]