Will there be a revolution? (03/18/06)

There may be a revolution on Monday.

But there could be a massacre instead.

Lost amid the headlines from Iraq and the distractions of basketball, the post-Soviet republic of Belarus is having an election this weekend.

The winner is already known. Alexander Lukashenka, an old-school thug, will be re-elected to a fourth term.

But it won’t be an honest election, and everyone in the country knows that.

So what happens on Monday is the wild card.

The primary opposition candidate has already called for his supporters to demonstrate in the main square of the capital, Minsk, that day.

They’ll be protesting an election process which has seen newspapers closed, entire editions of newspapers seized because they reported the views of opposition candidates, one presidential candidate roughed up by government stooges, numerous opposition campaign staff members arrested for petty charges so they can be kept in jail during the campaign’s final days, and state-owned media used as a megaphone to promote the guy in power.

It’s been an ugly sight, and chances are it’s going to get uglier.

This week, the Belarusian KGB — they still call it that — alleged a coup attempt was in the works, funded by the U.S. government. That will provide the pretext for as harsh a crackdown as necessary.

On Friday, the head of the KGB warned that anyone taking part in any post-election demonstrations would be engaging in terrorism and could face the death penalty.

If you think that sounds like the behavior of a regime in trouble, you’re right. But regimes that are frightened about the prospect of losing power can be dangerous.

Will Monday bring a revolution? We hope so.

Could it bring a massacre? Unfortunately, the answer is yes. — J.R.[[In-content Ad]]