October 28, 2014 at 5:10 p.m.

October a record month for questions

Rays of Insight

By RAY COONEY
President, editor and publisher

They just keep piling up:
•Points for the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers (sorry Colts fans).
•Scoreless World Series innings for Madison Bumgarner (that’s 15 of 16 this year for those who haven’t been counting).
•And questions from readers.
This month set a record for questions asked, and the topics varied from baseball to football to basketball and even swimming.
I even had to eliminate a few to control the length of this column. But that’s a good problem to have.
Keep the questions coming. I’m happy to provide the answers.
••••••••••
In the midst the World Series, how many players have hit walk-off homers to win the deciding game of a World Series?
—Phil Ford, Dunkirk

Two come to mind quickly for me — Joe Carter (who had previously played in Cleveland) for the Blue Jays and Bill Mazeroski for the Pittsburgh Pirates. There have been 13 other walk-off home runs in World Series history, but these are the only two that ended the season.
Mazeroski’s (http://atmlb.com/1wD8wDK) 1960 homer for the Pirates remains the only walk-off shot in game seven of the Series. It gave Pittsburgh a 10-9 victory over the New York Yankees in a game that included five home runs.
Carter’s (http://atmlb.com/1FRednN) came in 1993 against the Philadelphia Phillies after Rickey Henderson and Paul Molitor each singled in a game the Blue Jays were trailing 6-5. A low line drive that barely cleared the left-field wall made Carter the hero and gave Toronto its second consecutive title.
••••••••••
At the mid-point of the NFL season would you buy or sell the following going forward — Dallas Cowboys getting first-round bye, Arizona Cardinals win division, Rob Gronkowski finishing regular season with 16 games played and DeMarco Murray finishes season with most rushing yards in a season?
—Jason McGraw, Portland

Let’s take the questions one at a time.
Cowboys’ first-round bye: Sell. It’s much easier to sell this after Dallas lost Monday to Washington. The Cowboys will make the playoffs, but they’ll do it as a wild card behind division champion Philadelphia.
Arizona wins division: Buy. I wouldn’t be surprised if Seattle or San Francisco rallied, but the Cardinals are for real. I can see them winning as many as 12 games and earning a first-round playoff bye.
Rob Gronkowski plays 16 games: Sell. Experts say its unfair to call anyone injury prone. But Gronkowski has the kind of injuries, especially to his back, that tend to recur.
DeMarco Murray sets regular-season rushing record: Sell. Through eight games, he’s just barely on pace to break the record (2,105 by Eric Dickerson in 1984). He’s unlikely to keep that up, and I doubt he’ll become the eighth running back in NFL history to reach 2,000.
••••••••••
Which NFL team has been the most successful at converting 4th down tries in the last five years? Also, your thoughts on when it’s appropriate to go for it (outside of obvious fourth-quarter situations)?
—Steve Garbacz, Greenwood

This will probably come as no surprise to those who follow the game, but New England has been the most successful fourth-down team over the last five seasons. The Patriots have converted 65 percent (32-of-49) of their tries followed by Dallas (62 percent).
The worst has been the Miami Dolphins at 32 percent, while the league average is about 50 percent. Jacksonville has attempted more fourth downs than any other team with 105, while Indianapolis and San Diego have attempted the fewest at 44 apiece. (Visit http://bit.ly/12WpC6G to view more fourth-down stats.)
In terms of strategy, score and time remaining make a difference, but I fully support a team going for fourth-down tries from its own 40-yard line and beyond. I especially like to see teams go for it when they are near their opponent’s 40 rather than punting the ball into the end zone.
••••••••••
With the loss of Lance Stevenson to free agency and the injury to Paul George, where do you see the Indiana Pacers finishing in the Central Division as well as the Eastern Conference?
—Nathan Miller, Wanamaker

First, the easy part. Indiana is the third-best team in the division behind Cleveland and Chicago. While David West and Roy Hibbert are a formidable pair, they don’t stand up against the Cavaliers’ LeBron James, Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving or Bulls’ Derek Rose, Pau Gasol and Joakim Noah.
As for the Eastern Conference, without George and Stevenson, I think the Pacers will have a tough time making the playoffs. They’ll be in the fight for a low seed, but I think they finish below .500 and out of the postseason for the first time since 2010.
The oddsmakers in Las Vegas put Indiana’s over/under for wins at 33. I’d take the over, but not by much.
••••••••••
Give us your predictions on if the Jay County High School girls swim team will win its sectional this year since Muncie Central graduated several seniors but picked up the swimmers from Southside.
—Jamie Smeltzer, Portland

With freshman Alex Bader joining Anne Vormohr, Sophie Bader, Katy Smeltzer, Jamie Valentine, Sydney Mathias and Ashley Mark, Jay County has a chance to win almost every swimming event at the sectional. South Adams’ Cady Farlow may be the only athlete to break the Patriot stronghold.
But capturing the sectional title is about more than earning the top spot in individual events and relays. It’s also about depth, which is where the Bearcats have outdistanced JCHS in the last several years.
Central lost some key swimmers — sectional champion Emmy Rawson (200-yard individual medley and 200 butterfly) and Sydney Clasby — and its top two divers. And the Southside additions don’t make up for those losses.
The Patriots seem primed for a February celebration in the pool.
PORTLAND WEATHER

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