Slim chance JC returns to Class 3A

Two more years.
Actually, I should say, at least two more years.
It could, and seems like to, be much longer.
I’m talking about Jay County High School and its assignment to Class 4A.
The IHSAA last week released enrollment statistics that will be used to determine class assignment for the next two years.
JCHS, with 1,108 students, ranked 98th out of the state’s 406 schools. That means the Patriots are once again in the top quarter and will be assigned to Class 4A for boys and girls basketball, baseball, softball and volleyball. The official announcement is slated for early May.
So, does it matter if Jay County is in Class 3A or Class 4A?
In a word, yes.
Let’s look at the numbers.
The Patriots were assigned to Class 4A when the class system started in 1997 and stayed there for four years. They played in Class 3A from the 2001-02 school year through 2006-07 — six seasons — and then returned to Class 4A, where they have been ever since.
In its 12 seasons in Class 4A, Jay County has won two sectional championships. The volleyball team won a title in 1997, and the boys basketball team added another in 2011.
In six seasons competing in Class 3A, the Patriots won 10 sectional crowns — four for boys basketball, three for girls basketball, two for volleyball and one for baseball. That stretch also included a trip to the boys basketball state finals.
Needless to say, the Class 3A assignment was much more conducive to tournament success.
There are a variety of reasons for the differences, but the biggest is enrollment.
In Class 4A, Jay County is one of the little guys in a land of giants.
Sure, it’s reasonable that the Patriots could compete against schools like Connersville (1,112 students), New Castle (1,119), Pendleton Heights (1,411) and Richmond (1,415), or any of the schools in the lower half of the class. It’s the top half that makes life difficult.
Carmel, Indiana’s largest school, has 4,830 students. It’s no wonder the Greyhounds keep winning state championships. There are only 15 other schools have even half of their enrollment.
Homestead is just outside of that range at 2,315 students, but that’s still more than double that of the sectional rival Jay County.
Yes, David can slay Goliath.
But for every time a Milan pulls off a Miracle, there are 99 times, or more, that Muncie Central (or in today’s landscape Carmel, Ben Davis or Warren Central) stand victorious as expected.
The bad news for the Patriots is that their chances of dropping back into Class 3A are getting worse.
Three charter schools, all with fewer than 300 students, will become eligible for IHSAA competition in 2016-17. Another five could become eligible a year later.
The addition of small schools will bump the larger schools up.
Jay County’s only hope of a more equitable tournament opportunity is for the IHSAA to switch to a new system, with the top 64 schools based on enrollment divided into their own class and the remaining 342 divided into equal groups. Such a proposal was voted down in October, but similar ideas are likely to arise.
Regardless of the system, some schools are going to be at the bottom, facing a distinct disadvantage against their tournament rivals.
It’s just unfortunate for the athletes, coaches and fans in Jay County that, for at least two more years, Jay County is one of them.