Duke could make a run

Who might make a run in the NCAA tournament?
My guess is most sports prognosticators are going to wait until this week’s conference tournaments are complete and brackets are announced Sunday to make such predictions.
I say, why wait?
Sure the tournament match-ups make a difference. But we’ve seen enough basketball already to know what teams we like and don’t like.
To be clear, I’m not picking an NCAA champion in this column. What I am doing is pointing out three teams currently ranked outside of the top 10 in the Associated Press poll that I think have a chance to make a run in the tournament.
Here they are:

Duke Blue Devils
First things first, does anyone really want to be betting against coach Mike Krzyzewski in the tournament?
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I know I don’t. Coach K’s teams have been to the Sweet 16 14 times in the last 18 seasons.
The Blue Devils are such a good bet to win at least two tournament games that putting them (and Michigan State) straight into the Sweet 16 is one of my first bracket moves each year.
But Duke hasn’t quite been itself this year and is currently ranked 19th. So why the Blue Devils?
First, they can score. That may seem simplistic, but year after year the stats show that NCAA tournament winners tend to come from teams that average 80 or more points per game. Duke ranks 15th in the nation in scoring at 81.2.
Second, they have some impressive wins. The Blue Devils smacked 10th-ranked Indiana by 20 and scored victories over No. 4 Virginia, No. 7 North Carolina and No. 14 Louisville.
Third, Grayson Allen. Regardless of what we think of his behavior, a player with his skills — 21.5 points per game — is capable of carrying a team in the tournament.

Arizona Wildcats
The 15th-ranked team in the nation was up and down during conference play, but closed strongly by edging California and stomping Stanford by 32.
It’s Arizona’s stats in effective field goal percentage — a measure that adjusts for the fact that 3-point shots are worth more than those from inside the arc — that stand out. The team has an effective field goal percentage of 54.1 this season — 29th-best in the county. It’s almost as efficient on the defensive end, ranking 38th at 46.3 percent in opponents effective field goal percentage.
What does all that mean?
It means that on any given possession the Wildcats are one of the best teams in the country at scoring and at preventing their opponents from doing so. They rank in the top 11 percent in both categories.
But perhaps the best thing about Arizona is its balance on offense. Ryan Anderson leads the team at 15.8 points per game. Gabe York follows at 15. And freshman Allonzo Trier, a McDonald’s All-American, is right behind them at 14.6.
Good luck to any defense trying to stop the Wildcats. There’s no one weapon on which to focus.

Butler Bulldogs
Some are worried Butler might not make the tournament.
That’s possible, but I think the Bulldogs will get in. They have victories over 20-win teams Cincinnati, Temple and No. 13 Purdue and helped themselves by winning their last three games of the regular season.
And if they do get in, look out.
Butler winning 11 of its first 12 games was no fluke. Neither is the fact that they pour in 81.3 points per game — 14th-most in the nation — and refuse to turn the ball over as they average just 10.3 per game.
Kellen Dunham, a Pendleton Heights graduate who played for former Jay County High School boys basketball coach Craig Teagle on the 2012 Indiana All-Star team, and Kelan Martin lead a group of four players averaging double figures as they both average 16.2 points per game. It also doesn’t hurt that Dunham shoots 41.4 percent from 3-point range and has made at least 75 long distance shots in each of the last three seasons.
If the Bulldogs knock off fourth-seeded Providence, a team they have lost to twice, in the Big East Tournament quarterfinal round, expect them to be in the NCAA field. And if they are, don’t be surprised if they move on to the second weekend.