Still at high risk

New cases went down slightly. The positivity rate went up. The result was the same.

Jay County was rated “orange” (high risk for the spread of coronavirus) for the seventh consecutive week in Indiana State Department of Health’s update Wednesday.

The metrics the state uses to determine coronavirus risk have been fairly stable for several weeks. Jay County’s cases per 100,000 residents total has been in the mid-300s, with this week’s number coming in at 352. Its seven-day positivity rate has hovered around 10%, this week coming in at 10.2%.

After averaging less than a case per day in June and July, totals in Jay County have jumped significantly in the last two months. The county had 273 new cases of COVID-19 in August for an average of 8.8 per day. There were 323 new cases in the first 28 days of September — 11.5 per day. (That’s on pace for five times as many cases as September 2020.)

Jay County was one of 75 in Indiana rated orange this week, along with Adams, Wells, Blackford, Delaware and Randolph counties. Thirteen counties were rated “red” (extreme risk), four were “yellow” (moderate risk) and none were “blue” (low risk).

Area hospitalizations for COVID-19 have come down after peaking about two weeks ago. District 6, which includes Jay County, had 391 hospitalizations two weeks ago, the highest total at any time during the coronavirus pandemic. That number had dropped to 256 as of Tuesday. (That was still more than five times the low point from July.)

Vaccination continues to be the best way to prevent the spread of COVID-19. Clinics in Jay County are available at Jay County Health Department, Walgreens in Portland and CVS in both Portland and Dunkirk. Indiana State Department of Health will host a pop-up COVID-19 vaccination and testing clinic from noon to 8 p.m. Friday and Saturday at Jay County?Fairgrounds.

Indiana has the country’s 14th lowest rate of people who are fully vaccinated at 48.3% according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (Jay County ranks sixth-lowest among the state’s 92 counties.) In comparison, the national average rate is 55.8% and the country's highest rate, Vermont's, is 69.4%.

State health commissioner Dr. Kristina Box said she is concerned that COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy will lead to hesitancy with other vaccines.

“I do have some concerns about that, that this bleed off with COVID vaccines and the political nature that has surrounded that will then bleed off into other childhood vaccines and influenza vaccines that people tend to get on a yearly basis,” Box said.

Although COVID-19 trends have improved a bit in the last two weeks, she added that “the virus is not done with us yet” but she hoped not to see another significant winter surge.

“We will see times where this will elevate and go back down,” Box said. “It will be kind of that waveform that other states have seen and so it is not the time to drop our guard, to stop the mitigation measures that we know are working like masking in schools and other places.”

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends wearing a mask indoors for those who are in an area of “substantial or high transmission,” which includes Jay County.

Coronavirus is mainly spread through respiratory droplets or particles from an infected person coughing, sneezing, talking or breathing.  The virus causes a range of symptoms, including fever and shortness of breath, which can appear two to 14 days after exposure.